Unprecedented Changes in U.S. Policy
Calling it “a very dark hour for Ukraine,” Stent highlighted the dramatically changed circumstances with the shift in U.S. leadership.
“All of these resets [with Russia] failed because the U.S. has a very different idea of the drivers of world politics, [a different] world outlook than the Russian leader does. I think we now have a president who has a similar view of the drivers of world politics to President Putin,” Stent said.
According to Stent, one of the changes that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy must adapt to is the splintering of the transatlantic relationship that gave him combined support for the war from the United States and Europe.
Stent explained the unprecedented nature of President Trump’s change in U.S. policy : “For decades, at least since the Bolshevik Revolution, Soviet and Russian leaders have tried to split the U.S. and Europe. They have never liked the Transatlantic Alliance, particularly since the end of WWII. But finally it’s happening, and they didn’t even do it. It’s done by a U.S. President. And that’s what Putin is seeing.”
Optics as a Motivator for Policy
Dougherty focused on the Trump Administration’s attention to optics as a motivator for the speed with which events were proceeding.
“I don’t think that President Trump either has a plan or is particularly interested….There is a general idea. The idea by President Trump is to get this thing off the table as quickly as possible,” Dougherty said.
She pointed out the similar bargaining approaches employed by Trump and Putin: “In bargaining, Putin’s way of bargaining is that you slam the other guy up against the wall. You demand the world. And then, you let them backtrack, you get something. Trump seems to be trying to do some of that, but he’s doing it to Zelenskyy!”
Quick Ceasefire Versus a Lasting Peace
Stent and Dougherty agreed that President Trump appeared to be looking for a quick ceasefire agreement, rather than a peace plan to ensure lasting peace. Stent explained: “ He can say, ‘Ok, the shooting stopped, now I get a Nobel Peace Prize.’ I think the Trump team doesn’t really have a peace plan, but they’re interested, apparently, in the same thing that Putin is, which is U.S. resumption of the [U.S. – Russia] relationship to new heights.”
Stent does not believe that Putin is incentivized to end the war, because not only does he believe he is winning, but economic analysts predict that the Russian economy can support its continuation through this year.
“If there was a ceasefire, he [Putin] might accept that, but for how long? The only ceasefire that will work is if Ukraine has security assurances, guarantees to deter Russia. Because, otherwise, the Russian army will recoup and will reinvade. And he still wants to get rid of Zelenskyy and have a pro-Russian government in Ukraine,” Stent said.
Dougherty warned of the long-term impact on European security that settling for a ceasefire rather than a “long, durable peace” could create: “If it is just a ceasefire, and Putin continues to move on the battlefield, possibly farther West, it’s extraordinarily dangerous. It’s dangerous for the United States because if Europe then is inflamed in a bigger war, if Putin does move farther West, what does the United States do?”
Looking ahead, Stent focused on the objectives that Putin has already achieved through this war: “It’s quite extraordinary, if you think of the first few days of the war. It looked as if Russia was doing really badly. It didn’t capture Kyiv. The Ukrainians fought back. And yet, a few years later, the Russia-Chinese relationship is stronger than it was before, the BRICS [organization named for members Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa] are expanding, all these countries in the Global South are very happy to do business with Russia, and now you have a reset with the U.S. So Putin looks as if he’s coming out of this with Russia a more influential power than it was prior to the invasion in 2022.”
“When the war started, I started to think about the ways that I can educate myself, what are the best ways for me to study,” said Stepanovych, who is studying international economics. “And simultaneously, I also wanted to contribute to Ukrainian growth, so I wanted from my education to get something that I could actually use later in Ukraine to help my country recover from war … For me, this scholarship means first of all to utilize all the resources that I have now at Georgetown to help my country and to help overall make this world a better place as a person who will be working in the field of international affairs.”