Title: The New Administration and Latin America

The inauguration of a new U.S. president presents an inflection point, a moment of possibility just before a candidate’s election promises meet the realities of governing. As the United States enters the second Trump administration, SFS faculty offer their thoughts on how the 47th president’s statements during the campaign, policies during his first term and nominations and appointments announced thus far might impact different regions and issue areas around the world. The views expressed are the views of individual SFS faculty and not the views of SFS.

In conversation with SFS Professor Diana Kapiszewski, director of the Center for Latin American Studies (CLAS), we look at key issues to watch for in the Trump administration’s possible policies and actions toward Latin America.

What did Donald Trump, the candidate, promise regarding Latin America?

Latin America per se was not a major focus of Donald Trump’s campaign for U.S. president. Among the points he made about the region were suggestions that he will deport millions of people who entered the U.S. illegally, many of whom would be deported to Latin America; that he will levy tariffs on exports from some of the countries of the region; that he may take more aggressive action against drug traffickers; that he could address more directly the governments of Venezuela and Cuba; and that he may try to “renegotiate” the 1977 treaty that turned the Panama Canal over to Panama effective December 31, 1999, although it is unclear whether this is actually possible.

Based on President Trump’s policies during his first term and his nomination of Mauricio Claver-Carone as the special envoy for Latin America, what do you expect the new administration to do?

I do not expect the Trump administration to focus heavily on Latin America, at least in the short term, although I do anticipate that they will try to make good on at least some of what they have pledged with regard to deportations. Mr. Trump’s preference for Mr. Claver-Carone to serve as the special envoy for Latin America suggests that emphasis may be placed on initiatives related to economic growth, potentially as a strategy to counter China’s influence, while his nomination of Marco Rubio for Secretary of State suggests a potentially more aggressive stance toward Cuba and Venezuela. It remains to be seen how that approach will interact with Mr. Trump’s pragmatism.

How do you view the implications of President Donald Trump’s threats toward Latin America, the future of the multinational security mission in Haiti and Brazil’s upcoming BRICS presidency on the broader geopolitical landscape of the Western Hemisphere and emerging economies?

The Chinese are obviously already deeply engaged in regional fora, offering foreign aid and providing investment in infrastructure—physical and digital—and elsewhere. In his first administration, President Trump sought to provide some alternatives to Chinese influence, including development aid. Today, major geopolitical powers are vying even more clearly and actively for influence in the region, which may compel some action on the part of the administration. By contrast, if Mr. Trump’s reelection leads to further disengagement from Latin America, the result could be a reshuffling of intra-Latin American affairs. Brazil will certainly have more room to take the lead in South America and the Global South more generally, which President Lula has hoped to do.

Based on your expertise and experience in this area, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the policy direction about Latin America over the next four years? Why?

A core concern I have about the incoming Trump administration centers on the effect it could have on democracy in Latin America (and elsewhere), which is weakening in some countries of the region. Regime influences are, of course, just one component of the very complicated and multifaceted relationship between the United States and the countries of the region in an evolving world order. Nonetheless, they are foundational. To be sure, President Trump was elected freely and fairly in a clean election; the loser conceded promptly, and it appears the transfer of power will go smoothly. However, some of Mr. Trump’s rhetoric reflects authoritarian tendencies that could embolden illiberal elements in the region. Certainly, geopolitical and economic considerations will influence the degree to which the Trump administration condemns undemocratic action. We can hope that the president-elect does not openly embrace undemocratic leaders and that his foreign policy will reflect American ideals no matter whether right-wing or left-wing politicians lead the countries of the region.